Cover Хомяков П.М., Иванов В.Д., Искандарян Р.А. и др. Геоэкологическое моделирование для целей управления природопользованием в условиях изменений природной среды и климата
Id: 3051
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Геоэкологическое моделирование для целей управления природопользованием в условиях изменений природной среды и климата

URSS. 400 pp. (Russian). ISBN 5-8360-0339-4.
  • Hardcover

Summary

В книге с позиций системного анализа рассмотрены методы построения моделей динамики гео- и агроэкосистем регионального уровня (снижение размерности задачи, качественная идентификация параметров, оценка точности и верификация системы). Показана принципиальная возможность информационного обеспечения геоэкологических моделей без организации широкомасштабного, долговременного и дорогостоящего мониторинга.

С помощью созданной Автоматизированной ...(More)системы регионального экологического прогноза (АСРЭП) исследован широкий спектр задач по рациональному использованию природных ресурсов, оценке антропогенного воздействия на окружающую среду, а также теоретических проблем, связанных с глобальными изменениями природных условий и климата.

Для научных работников, специалистов в области охраны природы, математического моделирования и экологического прогнозирования, студентов и аспирантов естественных факультетов университетов, институтов, академий, вузов.


Annotation
The book is dedicated to a consideration of geo-ecological and agro-ecological systems, and to the modelling of their dynamics by applying various methods of systems analysis approach (such as reducing the dimensionality, the qualitative identification of parameters, model verification and validation, and so on).

The authors discuss the possibility of providing in principle an adequate information support for geo-ecological models without the need for broad-scale, long-term, and costly, environmental monitoring.

Based on a new Automated Regional Ecological Forecasting System (AREFS), the authors examine a wide spectrum of problems related to the efficient use of natural resources and environmental impact assessment, and consider a number of theoretical issues about the global climate and environmental change.

The book is intended for researchers --- specialists in the fields of nature conservancy, mathematical modelling and environmental forecasting, and students (including postgraduates) within the natural sciences departments of universities and academies.


Oglavlenie
Vvedenie
I Teoretiches kie osnoviintegral'nogo geoekologicheskogo modelirovaniya
1Obzor metodov ekologicheskogo prognoza i ekologicheskogo modelirovaniya. Metodologicheskoe obosnovanie printsipov modelirovaniya geoekosistem s pomosch'yu integral'nikh pokazatelej
 1.1.Vvodnie zamechaniya
 1.2.Metodi ekologicheskogo prognoza. Analiz prichin vozniknoveniya problem v ekologicheskom prognozirovanii i modelirovanii
 1.3.Spetsificheskie osobennosti dinamiki slozhnikh sistem i vozmozhnosti ikh formalizatsii
 1.4.Bazovie printsipi metodologii integral'nogo modelirovaniya. Effekt autostabilizatsii v prirode i v modelyakh
 1.5.Minimal'nie modeli
 1.6.O vozmozhnosti primeneniya sistemnogo analiza dlya formalizatsii opisaniya prirodnogo territorial'nogo kompleksa
 1.7.Obzor metodov integral'nogo geoekologicheskogo modelirovaniya i prognozirovaniya
2Metodi modelirovaniya dinamiki geoekosistem
 2.1.Vvodnie zamechaniya
 2.2.Formal'naya sut' poiska integral'nikh pokazatelej i vozmozhnosti ikh dezagregirovaniya
 2.3.Primenenie kontseptsii sostoyanij dlya formalizatsii dinamiki geoekosistem. Ponyatie funktsii sostoyaniya
 2.4.Ispol'zovanie svojstva autostabilizatsii v modelirovanii. Utochnenie kontseptsii sostoyanij i ee dal'nejshee ispol'zovanie v modelirovanii dinamiki geoekosistem
 2.5.Metodika postroeniya modelej dinamiki geoekosistem na baze primeneniya integral'nikh (agregirovannikh) pokazatelej
 2.6.Metodi nakhozhdeniya vida funktsional'nikh zavisimostej v integral'nikh modelyakh. Otsenka pogreshnosti integral'nogo modelirovaniya
 2.7.Obobschenie vivodov o pogreshnosti integral'nogo modelirovaniya. Ponyatie psevdobifurkatsij
  2.7.1.Nekotorie predvaritel'nie vivodi
  2.7.2.Smena klassov sostoyanij geoekosistem i rezhimi ikh funktsionirovaniya. Obobschenie vivodov o pogreshnostyakh integral'nogo modelirovaniya
  2.7.3.K voprosu o bifurkatsiyakh i "psevdobifurkatsiyakh"
 2.8.Nekotorie vazhnie zamechaniya
 2.9.Glubina prognozirovaniya s pomosch'yu integral'nikh modelej
 2.10.Vivodi
II Avtomatizirovannaya sistemaregional'nogo ekologicheskogo prognoza -- ASREP
1Modelirovanie dinamiki pochv
 1.1.Vvodnie zamechaniya
 1.2.Opisanie podbloka "pochva" dlya bloka "pochva--rastitel'nost'"
  1.2.1.Integral'nij pokazatel' plodorodiya pochvi -- indeks pochvi. Postroenie indeksa pochvi putem agregirovaniya
  1.2.2.Koeffitsient blagopriyatnosti klimata. Pryamaya otsenka indeksa pochvi
  1.2.3.Obosnovanie dostatochnosti indeksa pochvi dlya kharakteristiki osnovnikh ee svojstv
  1.2.4.Opisanie imitatsionnoj modeli dinamiki pochvennogo plodorodiya. Bioticheskie faktori
  1.2.5.Opisanie imitatsionnoj modeli pochvennogo plodorodiya. Abioticheskie faktori
 1.3.Podblok "pochva" kak minimal'naya model' pochvennogo plodorodiya. Issledovanie dinamiki pochvennogo azota s pomosch'yu modeli
  1.3.1.Postanovka zadachi. Opisanie modeli dinamiki pochvennogo azota
  1.3.2.Verifikatsiya modeli. Vozmozhnosti korrektirovki ryada zavisimostej
  1.3.3.Rezul'tati imitatsionnikh eksperimentov
  1.3.4.Vivodi i obobscheniya
 1.4.Pochvennoe plodorodie i produktivnost' fitotsenozov
  1.4.1.Osnovnie faktori, vliyayuschie na tekuschie znacheniya produktivnosti rastitel'nosti. Vliyanie udobrenij
  1.4.2.Modelirovanie vliyaniya zasolennosti i pereuvlazhnennosti pochv na produktivnost' rastitel'nosti
  1.4.3.Modelirovanie dinamiki kislotnosti pochv i ee vliyaniya na produktsiyu rastitel'nosti
  1.4.4.Modelirovanie dinamiki urozhajnosti agrotsenozov
2Modelirovanie dinamiki rastitel'nosti
 2.1.Opisanie podbloka "rastitel'nost'" dlya bloka "pochva--rastitel'nost'"
  2.1.1.Osnovnie integral'nie kharakteristiki sistemoobrazuyuschikh svojstv rastitel'nosti kak komponenta landshafta
  2.1.2.Opisanie modeli dinamiki rastitel'nosti. Osnovnaya chast'
  2.1.3.Opisanie modeli dinamiki rastitel'nosti. Imitatsiya nekotorikh spetsificheskikh rezhimov
 2.2.Podblok "rastitel'nost'" kak minimal'naya model' dinamiki zapasov biomassi i vozrastnikh kharakteristik soobschestv. Issledovanie s pomosch'yu detalizirovannoj modeli dinamiki rastitel'nikh soobschestv
  2.2.1.Postanovka zadachi. Opisanie detalizirovannoj modeli dinamiki rastitel'nikh soobschestv
  2.2.2.Verifikatsiya modeli
  2.2.3.Rezul'tati imitatsionnikh eksperimentov
 2.3.Primeri verifikatsii modeli "pochva--rastitel'nost'" i nekotorie aspekti interpretatsii rezul'tatov
3Modelirovanie morfodinamiki gidroseti
 3.1.Opisanie bloka morfodinamiki gidroseti
  3.1.1.Imitatsionnaya model' intensivnosti sklonovikh protsessov
  3.1.2.Sistema gidroseti i seti vremennikh vodotokov. Parametri raspredeleniya po glubinam i modelirovanie ikh dinamiki vo vremeni
  3.1.3.Modelirovanie izmenenij gustoti ovrazhno-balochno-dolinnoj seti
  3.1.4.Izmeneniya shirini dnisch i krutizni bortov dolin. Otsenki i vozmozhnosti modelirovaniya
 3.2.Blok morfodinamiki gidroseti kak minimal'naya model' dinamiki gustoti i glubini raschlenennosti rel'efa. Issledovanie s pomosch'yu prostranstvennoj modeli razvitiya erozionnoj seti
  3.2.1.Postanovka zadachi. Opisanie prostranstvennoj modeli razvitiya erozionnoj seti
  3.2.2.Verifikatsiya modeli
  3.2.3.Rezul'tati imitatsionnikh eksperimentov
 3.3.Nekotorie voprosi verifikatsii bloka morfodinamiki gidroseti
 3.4.Uchet neodnorodnosti territorii pri otsenke i modelirovanii dinamiki sostoyanij elementov prirodnikh territorial'nikh kompleksov
  3.4.1.Tipi mestnosti v predelakh regionov i osnovnie printsipi modelirovaniya dinamiki geoekosistem s uchetom neodnorodnosti territorii
  3.4.2.Ponyatie strukturnoj odnorodnosti territorii i problemi landshaftnogo rajonirovaniya dlya informatsionnogo obespecheniya ekspluatatsii ASREP
4Modelirovanie stoka i dinamiki verkhnikh gorizontov gruntovikh vod
 4.1.Opisanie bloka dinamiki vod sushi
  4.1.1.Analiz nekotorikh problem modelirovaniya stoka i obschaya kharakteristika bloka
  4.1.2.Kratkoe opisanie podbloka dinamiki poverkhnostnogo stoka i popolneniya gruntovikh vodozapasov
  4.1.3.Podblok dinamiki gruntovikh vod i gruntovogo pitaniya rek
  4.1.4.Vliyanie vnutrigodovoj neravnomernosti osadkov na formirovanie stoka
 4.2.Podblok dinamiki gruntovikh vod kak minimal'naya model' dinamiki regional'nikh vodozapasov verkhnego gorizonta gruntovikh vod
  4.2.1.Postanovka zadachi. Opisanie skhematizirovannoj prostranstvennoj modeli dinamiki gruntovikh vod
  4.2.2.Verifikatsiya modeli. Rezul'tati imitatsionnikh eksperimentov
 4.3.Sposobi formalizatsii uslovij uvlazhneniya i dinamiki stoka, kharakternikh dlya videlyaemikh v modeli tipov mestnosti
 4.4.Modelirovanie vliyaniya rastitel'nosti na stok, uvlazhnenie territorii i kharakteristiki prizemnogo mikroklimata
  4.4.1.Modelirovanie vliyaniya rastitel'nosti na temperaturu prizemnogo sloya vozdukha i skorost' vetra
  4.4.2.Modelirovanie vliyaniya lesa na strukturu stoka
  4.4.3.Modelirovanie vliyaniya rastitel'nosti na isparenie
  4.4.4.Modelirovanie vliyanie lesa na osadki. Rezul'tiruyuschee vliyanie lesa na stok
  4.4.5.K voprosu o modelirovanii svyazi prizemnoj temperaturi i uvlazhnennosti
 4.5.Verifikatsiya bloka dinamiki vod sushi
  4.5.1.Verifikatsiya bloka na primere modelirovaniya ryada lokal'nikh situatsij
  4.5.2.Verifikatsiya bloka na primere modelirovaniya dinamiki stoka Volgi s 1913 po 1980 gg.
5Modelirovanie dinamiki zabolochennosti i merzlotnikh uslovij
 5.1.Modelirovanie dinamiki bolot
 5.2.Modelirovanie dinamiki merzlotnikh uslovij
  5.2.1.Vvodnie zamechaniya
  5.2.2.Osnovnie peremennie i kontseptual'naya skhema postroeniya modeli
  5.2.3.Osnovnie zavisimosti bloka dinamiki merzlotnikh uslovij
  5.2.4.Modelirovanie dinamiki termokarsta
  5.2.5.Verifikatsiya bloka dinamiki merzlotnikh uslovij
6Modelirovanie dinamiki zasolennosti, migratsii i transformatsii zagryaznitelej
 6.1.Opisanie bloka zasolennosti pochv i verkhnikh gorizontov gruntovikh vod
 6.2.Opisanie bloka migratsii i transformatsii zagryaznitelej
  6.2.1.Obschaya kharakteristika bloka
  6.2.2.Modelirovanie migratsii i transformatsii zagryaznitelej v rasteniyakh
  6.2.3.Modelirovanie migratsii i transformatsii zagryaznitelej v pochvakh
  6.2.4.Opisanie podblokov evtrofikatsii i migratsii zagryaznitelej v gruntovikh vodakh i rekakh
  6.2.5.Pokazateli toksichnosti sredi
  6.2.6.Puti i metodi verifikatsii bloka migratsii i transformatsii zagryaznitelej. Spisok uchitivaemikh zagryaznitelej
7Obschaya skhema stroeniya ASREP
 7.1.Obschaya skhema stroeniya modeli dinamiki prirodnikh territorial'nikh kompleksov i vozmozhnosti ee ispol'zovaniya dlya prognozirovaniya rezul'tatov antropogennikh vozdejstvij
 7.2.Programmnaya realizatsiya ASREP
 7.3.Funktsional'naya skhema programmnoj realizatsii ASREP
III Primeri primeneniya ASREP dlya teoreticheskikhissledovanij, resheniya zadach ekologicheskikhekspertiz i regional'nogo upravleniyaprirodopol'zovaniem, izuchenie vliyaniya global'nogopotepleniya na ekonomiku Rossii
1Teoreticheskie issledovaniya yavleniya psevdobifurkatsij na primere razvitiya subtropicheskikh stepej
 1.1.Vvodnie zamechaniya
 1.2.Issledovanie variantov samovosstanovleniya geoekosistem narushennikh zemel' v zone subtropicheskikh savannovikh stepej
 1.3.Varianti razvitiya tsenozov subtropicheskikh pustin' pri dlitel'nom uvlazhnenii klimata. Vozniknovenie i razvitie geoekosistem prerij
 1.4.Vivodi
2ASREP kak instrument informatsionnogo obespecheniya prinyatiya reshenij, svyazannikh s prirodopol'zovaniem
 2.1.Spetsificheskie problemi informatsionnogo obespecheniya prinyatiya reshenij v oblasti prirodopol'zovaniya
 2.2.Obschaya skhema informatsionnogo obespecheniya protsessa prinyatiya reshenij v oblasti prirodopol'zovaniya i rol' geoekologicheskogo modelirovaniya
3Ekologicheskoe obosnovanie strategii razvitiya zemledeliya v Tsentral'nom Chernozem'e na primere Voronezhskoj oblasti
 3.1.Formulirovka problemi
 3.2.Issledovanie al'ternativ razvitiya zemledeliya s pomosch'yu ASREP
4Issledovanie razlichnikh variantov razvitiya oroshaemogo zemledeliya v zone Karakumskogo kanala
 4.1.Opisanie problemi
 4.2.Issledovanie razlichnikh al'ternativ razvitiya oroshaemogo zemledeliya s pomosch'yu ASREP
5Ekologicheskaya ekspertiza vozdejstviya razlichnikh variantov teploobespecheniya g. Semipalatinska na sostoyanie Semipalatinskogo bora
 5.1.Opisanie problemi i formulirovanie al'ternativ obespecheniya teplosnabzheniya
 5.2.Prognoz rezul'tatov realizatsii predlagaemikh al'ternativ obespecheniya teplosnabzheniya
 5.3.Vivodi
6Ekologicheskaya ekspertiza stroitel'stva Turgajskoj GRES
 6.1.Opisanie problemi i rezul'tati issledovaniya
 6.2.Zamechaniya i kommentarii
7Ekologicheskaya ekspertiza posledstvij avarii na Chernobil'skoj AES dlya sel'skogo, vodnogo i lesnogo khozyajstva Belorussii
 7.1.Opisanie situatsii i formulirovanie al'ternativ razvitiya khozyajstva
 7.2.Rezul'tati prognoznikh otsenok
 7.3.Vivodi
 7.4.Dopolnitel'nie teoreticheskie rezul'tati
8Issledovanie vliyaniya global'nogo potepleniya na gazovuyu otrasl'
 8.1.Postanovka zadachi. Klyuchevie problemi raboti otrasli na territorii Zapadnoj Sibiri, obuslovlennie spetsifikoj prirodnikh uslovij
  8.1.1.Vvodnie zamechaniya
  8.1.2.Opasnie prirodnie yavleniya na territorii severa Zapadnoj Sibiri, vliyayuschie na funktsionirovanie gazovoj promishlennosti
   Prirodnie yavleniya, vliyayuschie na perekhodi gazoprovodov cherez reki
   Prirodnie protsessi, vliyayuschie na linejnuyu chast' gazoprovodov
  8.1.3.Vliyanie izmenenij klimata na funktsionirovanie gazovoj promishlennosti. Imeyuschijsya opit otsenok
  8.1.4.Formulirovka zadachi dlya geoekologicheskikh issledovanij s tsel'yu otsenki vliyaniya global'nogo potepleniya na funktsionirovanie gazovoj promishlennosti
 8.2.Obschaya kharakteristika geoekologicheskikh i geokriologicheskikh uslovij severa Zapadnoj Sibiri i prognoz ikh izmenenij v rezul'tate global'nogo potepleniya s pomosch'yu ASREP
 8.3.Problemi transportirovki gaza i ikh vozmozhnoe obostrenie v svyazi s prognoziruemimi izmeneniyami prirodnoj sredi vsledstvie global'nogo potepleniya
  8.3.1.Uchastki perekhodov gazoprovodov cherez reki
  8.3.2.Linejnie uchastki gazoprovodov
  8.3.3.Vozmozhnie meropriyatiya po kompensatsii vliyaniya global'nogo potepleniya na transportirovku gaza i ikh ekonomicheskaya otsenka
 8.4.Problemi osvoeniya novikh mestorozhdenij v usloviyakh prognoziruemikh izmenenij prirodnoj sredi vsledstvie global'nogo potepleniya klimata
 8.5.Vivodi
Zaklyuchenie
Summary
Literatura
Predmetnij ukazatel'
Slovo ob avtorakh

Vvedenie

Ekologicheskaya tematika v poslednie dva desyatiletiya nakhodilas' v tsentre vnimaniya uchenikh, praktikov, politikov i publitsistov. Vipuschennaya v 1996 godu Mezhdunarodnim institutom prikladnogo sistemnogo analiza (IIASA, Laxenbourg, Austria) bibliografiya naschitivaet bolee 50000 publikatsij na ekologicheskuyu tematiku za 25 let, predshestvovavshikh 1996 godu, chto svidetel'stvuet o rastuschej aktual'nosti i populyarnosti dannoj problematiki.

V to zhe vremya v ekologicheskikh issledovaniyakh nametilos' videlenie v otdel'noe napravlenie rabot po prirodopol'zovaniyu. Ekologicheskie issledovaniya v etikh rabotakh prizvani obespechit' prinyatie optimal'nikh reshenij v mnogochislennikh otraslyakh, ekspluatiruyuschikh vozobnovimie prirodnie resursi i dostatochno oposredovanno svyazannikh s toj tematikoj, kotoruyu naibolee chasto otozhdestvlyayut s ekologicheskimi issledovaniyami (problemi redkikh vidov, problemi bioraznoobraziya i t.p.). Resursno-ekologicheskie issledovaniya osobenno aktual'ni v usloviyakh masshtabnikh izmenenij prirodnoj sredi i klimata, imeyuschikh global'nij kharakter.

Prognoz sostoyaniya pochv, rastitel'nosti, vodnikh ob'ektov, izmenenij strukturi zemel'nogo fonda, merzlotnikh uslovij i voobsche sostoyaniya geologicheskoj sredi stanovitsya neobkhodimim elementom pri virabotke reshenij v lesnom, sel'skom, vodnom khozyajstve, stroitel'stve, nefte- i gazodobiche i mnogikh drugikh otraslyakh.

Etot prognoz dolzhen davat' gramotnie i chetkie otveti na vopros: "chto budet s prirodnoj sredoj i otdel'nimi ee komponentami, esli proizojdut takie-to izmeneniya klimata i budut realizovani takie-to antropogennie vozdejstviya".

Podobnie prognozi nuzhni imenno dlya otraslevikh i regional'nikh rukovoditelej i zachastuyu ne imeyut nichego obschego s dostatochno rasplivchatoj i zaputannoj protseduroj tak nazivaemoj "ekologicheskoj ekspertizi", khotya ona dolzhna bila bi v pervuyu ochered' udovletvoryat' interes kak raz tekh rukovoditelej, kotorie zainteresovani v ob'ektivnoj informatsii o sostoyanii prirodnoj sredi i perspektivakh ee izmeneniya v tekh ili inikh regionakh.

V ryade sluchaev takaya informatsiya neobkhodima dlya prinyatiya reshenij i na bolee visokom urovne. Zabegaya vpered, skazhem, chto traditsionnoe opisatel'noe estestvoznanie podoshlo k predelu svoikh vozmozhnostej v oblasti prognozirovaniya sostoyaniya prirodnoj sredi pri tekh ili inikh variantakh izmenenij global'nogo klimata i stsenariev antropogennoj nagruzki na prirodno-territorial'nie kompleksi. Delo v tom, chto prognozi, osobenno prognozi vremeni nastupleniya tekh ili inikh predskazannikh izmenenij, ne yavlyayutsya sil'noj storonoj klassicheskogo opisatel'nogo estestvoznaniya.

V dannom sluchae ne sostavlyayut isklyucheniya i prikladnie otrasli klassicheskogo prirodovedeniya. V etoj svyazi sleduet otmetit' takzhe, chto otraslevie prikladnie razdeli estestvoznaniya zachastuyu sil'no spetsializirovani, mezhdu tem naibolee ostrie problemi prirodopol'zovaniya trebuyut kompleksnogo mezhdistsiplinarnogo issledovaniya. Problemi lesovodstva ili zemledeliya, naprimer, chasche opredelyayutsya gidrogeologicheskimi i gidrologicheskimi faktorami, a stok zavisit ot landshaftnoj obstanovki na vodosborakh. Vse eti effekti izvestni klassicheskomu prirodovedeniyu i uchitivayutsya v ego prikladnikh razdelakh. No podobnie effekti zachastuyu dolzhnim obrazom ne otseneni kolichestvenno, chto delaet kompleksnij geoekologicheskij prognoz metodami klassicheskogo estestvoznaniya nevozmozhnim.

Adekvatno udovletvorit' zaprosi upravleniya prirodopol'zovaniem mozhet tol'ko kompleksnoe geoekologicheskoe modelirovanie. V to zhe vremya, podavlyayuschee bol'shinstvo modelej ne stikuetsya s imeyuschimsya v opisatel'nom estestvoznanii ogromnim massivom informatsii o sostoyanii prirodnoj sredi v tekh ili inikh regionakh. Modelirovanie nosit v osnovnom "biofizicheskij" i "geofizicheskij" kharakter, kogda dlya informatsionnogo obespecheniya modelej trebuyutsya pokazateli tipa "osmoticheskogo davleniya na cherenke lista" ili "vyazkosti materiala v osnovanii morozobojnoj treschini". Ochevidno, chto takie kharakteristiki v massovom poryadke ne izmeryalis', ne izmeryayutsya i vryad li v blizhajshee vremya mozhno budet naladit' ikh adekvatnij monitoring.

Sledovatel'no, informatsionnoe obespechenie podobnikh modelej na osnove imeyuschejsya informatsii nevozmozhno i trebuet mnogoletnikh masshtabnikh spetsial'nikh issledovanij, unifitsirovannikh i organizovannikh na mezhgosudarstvennom urovne. Ochevidno, v obozrimom buduschem oni organizovani ne budut. Tem bolee, chto net garantij, chto takie modeli okazhutsya adekvatnimi i prigodnimi k prakticheskomu ispol'zovaniyu, a orientirovannij na ikh obsluzhivanie monitoring ne propadet zrya. S drugoj storoni, ispol'zovanie dannikh o sostoyanii prirodnoj sredi v otraslevoj praktike baziruetsya na dannikh prikladnikh distsiplin traditsionnogo estestvoznaniya -- lesovodstve, agrokhimii, inzhenernoj geologii, gidrologii i t.p. Takim obrazom, rezul'tati rabot "biofizicheskikh" i "geofizicheskikh" modelej ne mogut bit' ispol'zovani v sovremennoj praktike upravleniya i proektirovaniya takzhe po etoj prichine. Poetomu chrezvichajno aktual'nim stanovitsya vopros o sozdanii geoekologicheskikh modelej, pri postroenii, verifikatsii, informatsionnom obespechenii i ekspluatatsii kotorikh ispol'zovalis' bi kachestvennie dannie, otsenochnie kharakteristiki i kontseptual'nie postroeniya traditsionnogo opisatel'nogo estestvoznaniya. Rezul'tati raboti etikh modelej dolzhni legko interpretirovat'sya v terminakh prikladnikh nauk o Zemle, kotorie v nastoyaschee vremya real'no obsluzhivayut praktikov lesovodstva, agrokhimii, melioratsii, inzhenernoj geologii, inzhenernoj geomorfologii i t.p.

V to zhe vremya ispol'zovanie podobnikh modelej ne mozhet bit' lish' prilozheniem k obshirnim i poroj slabo strukturirovannim rekomendatsiyam opisatel'nogo kharaktera. Rezul'tati modelirovaniya dolzhni bit' podani chetko, yasno i kompaktno. Poslednee osobenno aktual'no. Informatsii dolzhno bit' rovno stol'ko, skol'ko dostatochno dlya prinyatiya upravlencheskikh reshenij sootvetstvuyuschego urovnya. Obshirnost' i izbitochnost' informatsii ne oblegchayut, a zatrudnyayut prinyatie reshenij, v tom chisle v oblasti prirodopol'zovaniya, -- eto azi inzhenernoj psikhologii i organizatsii upravleniya.

Vse visheizlozhennie trebovaniya k geoekologicheskomu modelirovaniyu kak instrumentu informatsionnogo obespecheniya prinyatiya reshenij i legli v osnovu izlagaemikh v dannoj knige razrabotok. Eti issledovaniya nachalis' bolee 20 let nazad vo Vsesoyuznom institute sistemnogo analiza AN i GKNT SSSR (nine Institut sistemnogo analiza RAN). V raznoe vremya v etikh rabotakh prinimali uchastie spetsialisti MGU, GAU, VNII ekonomiki sel'skogo khozyajstva, Instituta lesa RAN. Poslednie 10 let issledovaniya prodolzhayutsya v znachitel'noj stepeni vsledstvie ikh vklyucheniya v programmu "Global'nie izmeneniya prirodnoj sredi i klimata". Bez uchastiya v nej sootvetstvuyuschie raboti ne mogli bi bit' zaversheni i dovedeni do prakticheskogo ispol'zovaniya.

Naibolee krupnimi i znakovimi publikatsiyami po rezul'tatam dannikh rabot stali kollektivnaya monografiya "Priroda modelej i modeli prirodi", M.: Misl', 1986, pod redaktsiej D.M.Gvishiani, I.B.Novika i S.A.Pegova; kniga S.A.Pegova i P.M.Khomyakova "Modelirovanie razvitiya ekologicheskikh sistem", L.: Gidrometeoizdat, 1991; kollektivnaya monografiya "Vliyanie global'nikh izmenenij prirodnoj sredi i klimata na funktsionirovanie ekonomiki Rossii", M.: URSS, 1998, pod redaktsiej akademika N.P.Laverova i kollektivnaya monografiya P.M.Khomyakova s soavtorami "Modelirovanie dinamiki geoekosistem regional'nogo urovnya", M.: Izd-vo MGU, 2000.

Vse eti knigi soderzhat izlozhenie opredelennikh etapov rabot nad sootvetstvuyuschimi model'nimi metodikami i prilozheniya rezul'tatov primeneniya sootvetstvuyuschikh modelej.

Odnako izdanie visheopisannikh rabot ne ischerpalo izlozheniya vsekh znachimikh rezul'tatov issledovanij v dannom napravlenii. Osobo zdes' stoit otmetit' poslednyuyu publikatsiyu, kuda ne voshli ochen' mnogie interesnie i aktual'nie rezul'tati, i kotoraya po ryadu prichin okazalas' peregruzhennoj chisto opisatel'nimi materialami, imeyuschimi dostatochno otdalennoe otnoshenie i k modelirovaniyu, i k upravleniyu.

Poetomu izdanie obobschayuschej raboti predstavlyaetsya opravdannim i aktual'nim, tem bolee chto ryad ves'ma tsennikh rezul'tatov, otnosyaschikhsya k issledovaniyu situatsij, svyazannikh s global'nimi izmeneniyami prirodnoj sredi i klimata, polucheni v samoe poslednee vremya.

Kniga sostoit iz trekh chastej. Pervaya chast' posvyaschena teorii i metodologii issledovanij. Vtoraya chast' posvyaschena sobstvenno opisaniyu sootvetstvuyuschikh blokov modeli. V tret'ej chasti pokazani vozmozhnosti resheniya teoreticheskikh problem traditsionnogo estestvoznaniya, problem regional'nogo prirodopol'zovaniya i ekologicheskoj ekspertizi i problem issledovanij vliyaniya global'nogo potepleniya na ekonomiku Rossii s pomosch'yu geoekologicheskogo modelirovaniya.

Predstavlyaetsya pravomernim, chto prikladnoj tret'ej chasti predshestvuet teoreticheskij material. Slishkom ser'eznie vivodi delayutsya v etoj chasti, i chitatel' vprave uvidet' obosnovannost' i otsenku tochnosti sootvetstvuyuschikh metodik, na osnovanii kotorikh eti vivodi delayutsya.

Avtori blagodaryat svoikh kolleg, okazavshikh na raznikh etapakh raboti pomosch' v obespechenii naturnimi materialami, sodejstvie vo vnedrenii i proverke ASREP na praktike: doktora geograficheskikh nauk Yuriya Georgievicha Puzachenko, kandidata biologicheskikh nauk Bibi Bekkhanovnu Polatovu, kandidata geograficheskikh nauk Igorya Vasil'evicha Pileva, doktora geologo-mineralogicheskikh nauk Vitaliya Savel'evicha Savenko, doktora tekhnicheskikh nauk Dmitriya Mikhajlovicha Khomyakova.

Avtori iskrenne priznatel'ni vsem programmistam, uchastvovavshim v obespechenii programmnoj realizatsii privodimikh v dannoj knige geoekologicheskikh modelej: Sergeyu Vital'evichu Kazakovu, Alekseyu Alekseevichu Lyutovu, Vladimiru L'vovichu Solominu. Bez ikh samootverzhennogo i tvorcheskogo truda razrabativaemaya metodologiya nikogda bi ne bila realizovana v vide real'no rabotayuschej informatsionnoj tekhnologii.

Osobuyu priznatel'nost' avtori virazhayut chlenu-korrespondentu RAN Alekseyu Aleksandrovichu Makarovu, podderzhavshemu issledovaniya v samij otvetstvennij moment nachala ikh vnedreniya v praktiku.

Zavershaya nashe vvedenie, esche raz podcherknem, chto bez podderzhki Ministerstva nauki Rossijskoj Federatsii i Rukovodstva programmoj "Global'nie izmeneniya prirodnoj sredi i klimata" dannie issledovaniya nikogda bi ne bili zaversheni i dovedeni do gotovnosti k prakticheskomu ispol'zovaniyu.

Za chto avtori blagodarni Ministerstvu nauki RF i Rukovodstvu programmi "Global'nie izmeneniya prirodnoj sredi i klimata".


Contents
Introduction
I Theoretical fundamentals integrated geoecological modelling
1A review of methods of ecological forecasting and modelling. Methodological justification of principles of geoecosystem modelling using integrated indicators
 1.1.Introduction remarks
 1.2.Methods of ecological forecasting. An analysis of causes of difficulties in ecological forecasting and modelling
 1.3.Specific features of complex systems dynamics and ways of their formalization
 1.4.Basic principles of an integrated modelling methodology. The autostabilization effect in nature and models
 1.5.Minimal models
 1.6.The application of systems analysis to formalization of natural territorial complex descriptions
 1.7.A review of integrated geoecological modelling and forecasting methods
2Methods of geoecosystems dynamics modelling
 2.1.Introductory remarks
 2.2.Formal issues in search for integrated indicators and the ways of their disaggregation
 2.3.Application of the geoecosystem state concept to formalizing geoecosystems dynamics. Concept of a state function
 2.4.Use of the autostabilization property in modelling. More on the state concept and its further use in modelling geoecosystems dynamics
 2.5.Guidelines on geoecosystem dynamics model building using integrated (aggregated) indicators
 2.6.Methods of finding functional relationships in integrated models. Error estimations in integrated modelling
 2.7.Summary of conclusions about errors in integrated modelling. The pseudobifurcation concept
  2.7.1.Some preliminary observations
  2.7.2.Changes of geoecosystems state classes and modes of their functioning. Summary of conclusions about errors in integrated modelling
  2.7.3.On bifurcations and "pseudobifurcations"
 2.8.Some important remarks
 2.9.Consideration of forecast time horizons using integrated models
 2.10.Conclusions
II An automated system for regional forecasting -- ASREF
1Soil dynamics modelling
 1.1.Introductory remarks
 1.2.A soil sub-block in the "soil--vegetation" block
  1.2.1.An integrated indicator of soil productivity as a soil index. The soil index construction by aggregation
  1.2.2.A climate favourability factor. Direct estimation of a soil index
  1.2.3.Substantiation of sufficiency of the soil index for characterization of its basic properties
  1.2.4.Description of a soil fertility dynamics simulation model. Biotic aspects
  1.2.5.Description of a soil fertility dynamics simulation model. Abiotic aspects
 1.3.The soil sub-block as a minimal model of soil fertility. Application of the model to a study of soil nitrogen dynamics
  1.3.1.Problem setting. Description of a soil nitrogen dynamics model
  1.3.2.Model verification. Ways of adjusting some relationships
  1.3.3.Model simulation results
  1.3.4.Conclusions and summary
 1.4.Soil fertility and phytocenosis productivity
  1.4.1.Major factors influencing current values of vegetation productivity. Impact of fertilizers
  1.4.2.Modelling the impact of soil salinity and excessive precipitation
  1.4.3.Modelling the soil acidity dynamics and its impact on vegetation products
  1.4.4.Modelling the agrocenosis productivity dynamics
2Modelling the vegetation dynamics
 2.1.Description of a "vegetation" sub-block in the "soil--vegetation" block
  2.1.1.Basic integrated characteristics of systemic properties of vegetation as a landscape component
  2.1.2.The description of a vegetation dynamics model. The basic part
  2.1.3.The description of a vegetation dynamics model. Simulation of some specific dynamics modes
 2.2.The "vegetation" sub-block as a minimal model of biomass stocks dynamics and of age features of communities. A study of vegetative communities dynamics using a detailed model
  2.2.1.Problem description. The description of a detailed model of vegetative communities dynamics
  2.2.2.Model verification
  2.2.3.Results of simulation experiments
 2.3.Examples of the "soil--vegetation" model verification and result interpretation issues
3Modelling the watershed morphology
 3.1.The description of the watershed morphology block
  3.1.1.A slope processes intensity simulation model
  3.1.2.The system of a watershed and a network of temporary waterways. Depth related distribution parameters and modelling their temporal dynamics
  3.1.3.Modelling changes in the density of ravine-valley networks
  3.1.4.Changes in valley bottom widths and valley side steepness. Estimations and ways of modelling
 3.2.The watershed morphology block as a minimal model of relief dismemberment dynamics and depth. A spatial erosion network development model study
  3.2.1.Problem description. A description of the spatial erosion network development model
  3.2.2.Model verification
  3.2.3.Results of simulation experiments
 3.3.Some watershed morphology model verification issues
 3.4.An integration of territorial heterogeneity into territorial complex element state dynamics assessment and modelling
  3.4.1.Types of terrain within regions and the main principles of geoecosystem dynamics modelling taking into account of territorial heterogeneity
  3.4.2.The concept of structural uniformity of a territory and issues of dividing landscapes into parts to provide information for ASREFs
4Modelling upper groundwater layer runoffs and dynamics
 4.1.The description of a terrestrial water dynamics block
  4.1.1.An analysis of some problems in modelling runoffs and a general description of the block
  4.1.2.A brief description of the sub-block of surface run-off dynamics and groundwater stock renewal
  4.1.3.A sub-block of groundwater dynamics and groundwater river supply
  4.1.4.Impact of precipitation irregularities throughout a year on runoff formation
 4.2.The groundwater dynamics sub-block as a minimal model of regional upper groundwater layer water supply dynamics
  4.2.1.Problem description. A spatial groundwater dynamics model description
  4.2.2.Model verification. Model simulation results
 4.3.Ways of formalizing humidification features and runoff dynamics typical for selected terrain types in the model
 4.4.Modelling a vegetation impact on runoffs, land moisture content and the near-ground microclimate
  4.4.1.Modelling a vegetation impact on temperature of a near-ground air layer and wind velocity
  4.4.2.Modelling a forest impact on the runoff structure
  4.4.3.Modelling a vegetation impact on evaporation
  4.4.4.Modelling a forest impact on precipitation. The resulting runoff impact of forests
  4.4.5.Issues of modelling relationships between near-ground temperature and land humidity
 4.5.Verification of the terrestrial water dynamics block
  4.5.1.Verification of the block by modelling local situations
  4.5.2.Verification of the block by modelling the Volga river runoff dynamics from 1913 to 1980
5Modelling the wetland and permafrost dynamics
 5.1.Modelling the wetland dynamics
 5.2.Modelling the permafrost dynamics
  5.2.1.Introductory remarks
  5.2.2.Basic variables and the model conceptual outline
  5.2.3.Basic relationships in the permafrost dynamics block
  5.2.4.Modelling the permafrost dynamics
  5.2.5.Verification of the permafrost dynamics block
6Modelling the salinity and pollutant transport and transformation dynanics
 6.1.A description of the soil and top groundwater layer salinity block
 6.2.A description of the pollutant transport and transformation block
  6.2.1.A general block description
  6.2.2.Modelling the pollutant transport and transformation in plants
  6.2.3.Modelling the pollutant transport and transformation in soils
  6.2.4.A description of sub-blocks of eutrophication and pollutant transport in ground waters and rivers
  6.2.5.Indicators of environment toxicity
  6.2.6.Ways and methods of verification of the pollutant transport and transformation. A list of pollutants considered
7The ASREF general structure
 7.1.A general outline of the territorial complex dynamics model and its capacity for forecasting anthropogenic impacts
 7.2.ASREF software
 7.3.Flowchart of ASREF software
III Examples of ASREF application for theoretical research,EIA problem solving and regional environmental management, studies of global warming impact Russia's economy
1Theoretical research on pseudobifurcation phenomenon: a case study of subtropical steppe expansion
 1.1.Introductory remarks
 1.2.A study of self-restoration alternatives for disturbed geoecosystems in the subtropical steppe zone
 1.3.Development variants for subtropical desert cenoses in the case of long-term climate humidification. Emergence and expansion of prairies type geoecosystems
 1.4.Conclusions
2ASREF as an information support tool for environmental decision making
 2.1.Specific issues relating to information support for environmental decision-making
 2.2.The general outline of information support for environmental decision-making and the role of geoecological modelling
3Ecological aspects of various land management strategies in russia's Central-Chernozem region: a case study of Voronezh province
 3.1.Problem setting
 3.2.Research into alternatives of land management using ASREF
4A study of various variants of irrigated agricultural development in the Karakum canal area
 4.1.A description of the problem
 4.2.A study of various alternatives of irrigated agricultural development using ASREF
5Assessment of environmental impact of heat supply alternatives for the city of Semipalatinsk on a nearby pine tree forest
 5.1.The description of a problem and a formulation of urban heat supply alternatives
 5.2.Forecasts of implementation results for heat supply alternatives
 5.3.Conclusions
6Environmental impact assessment of Turgaisk power station construction
 6.1.The description of a problem and results of research
 6.2.Remarks and comments
7Assessment of environmental impact of the Chernobyl accident on agricultural, water and forest resources in Byelorus
 7.1.A description of the situation and the setting of alternatives of economic development
 7.2.Results of forecast estimates
 7.3.Conclusions
 7.4.Additional theoretical results
8A study of global warming impact on the gas industry
 8.1.Problem description. The key environment related problems of the gas industry in Western Siberia
  8.1.1.Introductory remarks
  8.1.2.Hazardous natural phenomena on the territory of the north of Western Siberia and their impact on the gas industry
  8.1.3.Climate change impact on the gas industry: available experience
  8.1.4.Goal setting for geoecological studies to assess climate change impact on the gas industry
 8.2.A general description of geoecological and geocryological conditions in the north of Western Siberia and a forecast of their changes following global warming using ASREF
 8.3.Gas transportation issues and their possible exacerbation due to predicted global climate warming
  8.3.1.Stretches of gas pipelines crossing rivers
  8.3.2.Linear stretches of gas pipelines
  8.3.3.Suggested measures to mitigate global warming impacts on gas transportation and their economic estimation
 8.4.Issues of new gas deposit exploitation in the conditions of predicted climate change
 8.5.Conclusions
Summary (russian)
Summary (english)
References
Index
About the authors

Summary

The necessity of integrating natural resource considerations into the so-called "strategic studies" is really not challenged by anybody. However, the area of environmental management, having grown into a heavy and influential bureaucratic institution, has not essentially raised to the level of management. For management without forecasting is impossible.

The existing numerous geoecological forecasting models have not become a reliable basis for environmental management. And it is not a mere allegation. Human practice abounds with examples of various types "information industry" in the field of humans-nature interactions.

The most obvious example of such an "information industry" is the weather service that is based on the synoptic method of forecasts, recently supplemented with forecasting models.

It is characteristic of the weather service that the same parameters:

-- measured with a network of meteorological stations,

-- predicted,

-- used in practice.

Integrated geoecological forecasts, if environmental management should be based on them, lack the above mentioned linkage with monitoring and information application systems.

The situation in which one parameter is measured, another is forecast while a third is used in practice prevails. All that means that the methods of integrated geoecological modelling and forecasting have not really become the core on which scientifically based sustainable development can be based, rather than bureaucratic and political speculations about it.

Indeed, there will not be a monitoring system introduced to check the potential of osmotic pressure on the shank of each leaf or the ground viscosity in all cracks caused by frost. But it is such parameters that appear in the majority of available geoecological models.

In order to build a workable system of integrated geoecological forecasting there are no other ways except for using the evidence derived from traditional descriptive natural sciences and their applied branches, such as agrochemistry, forest science, erosion science, land management, hydrogeology, etc. For the purpose of geoecological modelling (besides only addressing theoretical issues) consists just in a search for methods of using in forecasting models those data that appear in traditional Earth sciences and are used in environmental management practice for decades (if not for centuries).

Only such models can become an information support for rational management of natural resources just as the synoptic method once became the basis for weather.

Any reader who could even have glanced through the book should notice that those were such models that the authors have created all these years. The ASREF has become an embodiment of such an approach to geoecological modelling and the first step to creating an efficient information industry within the framework of environmental management.

The ASREF has been successfully applied for addressing specific problems of rational environmental management. In this connection, one can only mention successful attempts that were undertaken to link the ASREF to various monitoring systems, including space monitoring. One can only regret that these promising activities were suspended in the 1990s for the well known reasons of completely no scientific nature.

Nevertheless, the ASREF operational experience is sufficient to insist on its doubtlessly promising performance as the basic information support methodology for sustainable environmental management. It does not preclude in any way that better modelling systems can be designed. However, one must emphasize that really competitive similar systems can only be designed using the same methodological principles, and, first of all, those of integrated modelling.

One can conclude with a statement about the successful work on geoecological modelling and a constructive embodiment of this method as a really working information technology represented by the ASREF. But that would not be enough.

Implementing the method of integrated modelling with reference to the different components of the natural environment with different specific features that are studied by a range of sciences (from biology to geology), the authors have come to a conclusion about a very wide potential of integrated modelling. The capacity of this method surpasses demands on it relating to geoecological problem solving.

The integrated method and the concept of geoecosystem states can successfully be used practically in any subject domain dealing with so-called fuzzy problems. And such problems are basic in policy-making, economy, military activity, etc. The integrated method enables, within the framework of dynamic models that are mathematically well proved, using qualitative knowledge of experts.

Therefore the given book can be viewed not only as a piece of the work describing the creation of geoecological models, but also as a work on integrated modelling as a method demonstrated on a specific example from the area of Earth sciences.

The authors are confident not only in a promising future for integrated geoecological models and vistas for applications of ASREF wide capability. We are certain that methods of integrated modelling will be (especially in the near future) useful to formalize complex problems of the development of nature, society, the civilization. With the help of these models, one will be able to solutions to a number of urgent problems that remain unraveled because of a lack of methodology to forecast and understand the appropriate related processes and phenomena.


Slovo ob avtorakh

Khomyakov Petr Mikhajlovich (rukovoditel' avtorskogo kollektiva). Doktor tekhnicheskikh nauk, kandidat geograficheskikh nauk, professor. Zaveduyuschij laboratoriej Instituta sistemnogo analiza RAN. Avtor svishe 60 nauchnikh publikatsij i 7 monografij.

Ivanov Vladimir Dmitrievich. Inzhener-ekolog Moskovskogo gosudarstvennogo gornogo universiteta. Avtor svishe 20 nauchnikh publikatsij i 2 monografij.

Iskandaryan Ruben Aleksandrovich. Kandidat biologicheskikh nauk. Starshij nauchnij sotrudnik VIUA. Avtor svishe 20 nauchnikh publikatsij i 1 monografii.

Konischev Vyacheslav Nikolaevich. Doktor geograficheskikh nauk, professor. Zasluzhennij deyatel' nauki Rossijskoj Federatsii. Zaveduyuschij kafedroj kriolitologii i glyatsiologii Geograficheskogo f-ta MGU. Avtor svishe 150 nauchnikh publikatsij i 9 monografij.

Krivobok Igor' Georgievich. Kandidat fiziko-matematicheskikh nauk, zaveduyuschij laboratoriej Instituta sistemnogo analiza RAN. Avtor svishe 40 nauchnikh publikatsij i 1 monografii.

Pegov Sergej Anatol'evich. Doktor tekhnicheskikh nauk, professor. Zaveduyuschij otdelom Instituta sistemnogo analiza RAN. Avtor svishe 100 nauchnikh publikatsij i 4 monografij.

Smolin Vladimir Sergeevich. Nauchnij sotrudnik Instituta prikladnoj matematiki im.V.Keldisha RAN. Avtor svishe 20 nauchnikh publikatsij i 5 avtorskikh izobretenij.

Smolina Svetlana Georgievna. Starshij nauchnij sotrudnik Instituta sistemnogo analiza RAN. Avtor svishe 50 nauchnikh publikatsij i 3 monografij.

Terent'ev Gennadij Yur'evich. Kandidat ekonomicheskikh nauk. Dotsent kafedri proizvodstvennogo menedzhmenta v energetike Gosudarstvennoj akademii upravleniya im.S.Ordzhonikidze. Avtor svishe 50 nauchnikh publikatsij i 3 monografij.


About the author
Khomyakov Petr Mikhajlovich
Doktor tekhnicheskikh nauk, professor. Okonchil geograficheskij i mekhaniko-matematicheskij fakul'teti MGU imeni M. V. Lomonosova. S 1981 g. rabotal v sisteme AN SSSR (pozzhe — RAN), GKNT i Gosplana; zanimalsya problemami informatizatsii gosudarstvennogo upravleniya, prirodno-resursnogo obespecheniya ustojchivogo funktsionirovaniya otraslej narodnogo khozyajstva, regional'nogo upravleniya, uchastvoval v issledovaniyakh po global'nim problemam. Prepodaval v Gosudarstvennoj akademii upravleniya, Moskovskom institute inzhenerov geodezii, aerofotos'emki i kartografii, Rossijskom novom universitete. Rabotal analitikom v RIA «Novosti» i ITAR-TASS. P. M. Khomyakov razrabotal kursi ekologicheskoj ekspertizi, sistemnogo analiza, menedzhmenta, prinyatiya upravlencheskikh reshenij, a takzhe bil initsiatorom sozdaniya knizhnoj serii «Ekspress-kurs lektsij» po razlichnim predmetam dlya studentov-vechernikov i zaochnikov, predpolagayuschej maksimal'no kompaktnoe i dokhodchivoe izlozhenie sootvetstvuyuschikh kursov s uchetom spetsifiki obucheniya v usloviyakh defitsita vremeni. Opublikovano svishe 80 ego nauchnikh statej, 12 uchebnikov i monografij.