Grinin L. Macrohistory and Globalization

The present monograph considers some macrohistorical trends along with the aspects of globalization. Macrohistory is history on the large scale that tells the story of the entire world or of some major dimensions of historical process. For the present study three aspects of macrohistory have been chosen. These are technological and political aspects, as well as the one of historical personality. Taken together they give a definite picture of unfolding ...(More)historical process which is described from the beginning of human society formation to the present day and near future. The combination in the monograph title of the two terms – macrohistory and globalization – is in no way artificial. On the contrary, the connection of these terms is organic at least as the real goal of macrohistory is to find mean-ing in the past so as to create new possibilities of meaning for the future. The analysis of globalization also includes three aspects: political, economic and futurological as today the world may well be regarded as being at the start of a new global reconfiguration. The author presents his ideas of the world prospective political and in some respects social-economic development basing on the analysis of macrohistory and contemporary globalization processes. The monograph also considers some global scenarios of the World System's near future.

Contents

Introduction (Full text)

Part I. MACROHISTORY SURVEYS

Chapter 1 Production Revolutions and Periodization of History: A Comparative and Theoretic-Mathematical Approach(Full text)

1. On historical process and the rules of periodization

2. The production principles and production revolutions

3. The elaboration of the periodization and development of historical process

3.1. When does historical process start?

3.2. The first formations of historical process. The Hunter-Gatherer production principle

3.3. The second formation of the historical process. The Craft-Agrarian production principle

3.4. The third formation of the historical process. The Industrial production principle

3.5. The fourth formation of the historical process. The Information-Scientific production principle

4. Mathematical interpretation of historical process

Chapter 2 The Role of an Individual in History: A Reconsideration(Full text)

Section 1

1. Views on the role of an individual in history up to the 18th century

2. The development of views on the role of an individual from the 18th to early 20th century

2.1. The view on the individual as an instrument of historical law

2.2. Heroic, scientific, deterministic, middle and other views

3. Modern approaches to the problem of the role of an individual

Section 2

1. General approaches

1.1. Dialectic difficulties of the problem and the general scheme of the approach to its solution

1.2. On the typology of roles in history. Who can be consi-dered an outstanding personality?

1.3. Some factors changing the scale of historical personalities' influence

1.4. An individual and the masses

2. Factor and phase analysis

2.1. The factor of situation

2.2. Some constituents of the factor of situation

2.3. Society's state phases

2.4. Modeling of change of the role of an individual in various phases of society states

Chapter 3 The Evolution of Statehood(Full text)

1. The beginning of politogenesis

2. About the views on the origin of state

3. On the typology of the Early States

4. On the necessity of change in the concept of evolutionary stages of statehood

5. Main differences of the Early, Developed, and Mature States

6. Early State

7. Developed State

8. Analogues of developed states and some notes on the World System political evolution

9. Mature State

10. Additional comparison between evolutionary types of state

11. Mature state transformation in the 20th century

12. Concluding remarks

Part II. GLOBALIZATION: ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL ASPECTS

Chapter 4 Economic Aspects of Globalization (in co-authorship with Andrey Korotayev)

(Full text)

Section 1. The Theory of Economic Cycles and Current Global Crisis

1. On some approaches of economic science to the problem of cyclicity and economic crises

2. General systemic model of crisis

3. On some important specific features of cyclical economic crises

4. A verbal model of the J-cycle

5. Recovery phase

6. Upswing phase

7. Overheating sub-phase

8. Recession phase

9. Depression phase

10. On the importance of further research of the theory of J-cycles

Section 2. The Global Financial System: Pros And Cons(Full text)

1. Global causes of the global crisis

2. Why have classical features of previous economic crises been manifested in the current crisis?

3. Financial speculation: does it have a positive side?

4. Financial currents as the world pension fund?

5. Feeling of the necessity of changes

Chapter 5 Political Aspects of Globalization(Full text)

Section 1. Why do States Lose their Sovereignty in the Age of Globalization?

1. Why is the notion of sovereignty difficult and ambi-guous?

2. Globalization, economy, and world policy

3. Globalization and reducing sovereignty

4. Reducing sovereignty and nationalism

5. Different issues of national sovereignty change

Section 2. On the Way to Global Society: The Coming Epoch of New Coalitions (in co-authorship with Andrey Korotayev)(Full text)

1. ‘Arab Spring’ as a precursor of the world reconfigu-ration?

2. Change of leadership or a fundamental system modi-fication?

3. Hypothetical and real alternatives

4. Will the deficit of global governance and world fragmen-tation increase?

5. The epoch of new coalitions and sovereignty transformation

References