Cover Попков Ю.С., Ростопшин Ю.А. Системный анализ проблемы устойчивого развития
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Системный анализ проблемы устойчивого развития. Т.54

URSS. 192 pp. (Russian). ISBN 978-5-9710-0389-2.
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Сборник содержит статьи ученых ИСА РАН и ведущих ученых других российских научных организаций, относящиеся к актуальной проблематике устойчивого развития человеческого общества в современной биосфере. В статьях получили отражение вопросы, связанные с современными тенденциями глобальных и региональных изменений в состоянии окружающей человека среды, со становлением и развитием системной методологии исследований взаимодействия... (More)

 Yu.S.Popkov, Yu.A.Rostopshin
  Obschee soderzhanie problemi ustojchivogo razvitiya
  Printsipi evolyutsionnoj preemstvennosti v obschesistemnoj metodologii issledovanij ustojchivogo razvitiya
  Termodinamicheskie kharakteristiki replikatornikh sistem s nelinejnimi parnimi vzaimodejstviyami
  Priznaki stabil'nosti vodnikh ekosistem v matematicheskikh modelyakh
  Ustojchivost' ekosistemi pri razlichnikh urovnyakh slozhnosti modelej
 I.P.Glazirina, I.A.Zabelina, E.A.Klevakina
  Mezhregional'noe neravenstvo v Rossii i perspektivi razvitiya vostochnikh regionov
 L.G.Mel'nik, A.V.Kubatko
  Analiz ustojchivosti regional'nogo razvitiya na osnove modelej ekologo-ekonomicheskoj konvergentsii
 T.M.Smirnova, V.N.Krut'ko
  Demograficheskij potentsial Rossii i problemi ego ustojchivogo razvitiya v usloviyakh konkurentnogo mira
  Vliyanie SMI na zdorov'e: faktor destabilizatsii ili ustojchivogo razvitiya?
  Problemi sokhraneniya prirodno-resursnogo potentsiala: analiz effektivnosti organizatsionno-ekonomicheskogo instrumentariya
 V.N.Glushkov, D.A.Sarancha
  O podkhodakh sistemnogo analiza k probleme ustojchivogo razvitiya lokal'nikh uchastkov biosferi
  Modelirovanie dinamiki merzlotnikh uslovij dlya razvitiya territorial'nikh kompleksov
 V.V.Mikhajlov, A.A.Tomilov, V.M.Umivakin, V.B.Vlasov, Ya.A.Fedorova
  Morfologicheskij analiz i sintez ekologo-ekonomicheskikh reshenij pri proektirovanii prirodno-antropogennikh sistem

  Summaries of articles
  Svedeniya ob avtorakh

Summaries of articles

The general contents of the sustainable development problem
Yu.S.Popkov, Yu.A.Rostopshin

The analysis of existing problems of modelling research of an actual problem of the social and economic sustainable development is presented. Possible directions of perfection of the general system methodology of modelling of objects of modern biosphere are offered.
Keywords: the system and macrosystem approaches, the open nonequilibrium systems, physical laws of preservation.

Principles of evolutionary continuity in general systems
methodology of sustainable development researches
Yu. A.Rostopshin

The Modern biosphere is a product of a material world of our planet, occurrence of the structures capable to self-reproduction, possessing the mechanisms providing a survival, capable to improve these mechanisms. Most the general for definition of systems of objects of modern biosphere is their representation as the open no equilibrium systems [1]. Functions of such systems is maintenance of a no equilibrium condition with use of energy of an environment. In this connection models of self-organizing of the open no equilibrium systems -- a possible direction of synthesis of the general system methodology of researches of sustainable development.
Keywords: the open nonequilibrium systems, self-organizing, adaptation, evolution, a competition, selection, sustainable development.

The thermodynamic characteristics of the replicatorequations
with nonlinear pairwise interactions

In this report we summarize the results in the application of Direct Lyapunov method to the generalized replicator systems with weighted sum of nonlinear pairwise interactions. These complex equations to define the properties of a system composed of objects that are coupled via nonlinear pairwise interactions. It is shown that there are exist two types of thermodynamic Lyapunov functions: fitness-like and entropy-like. As example it'll be establish that practically all known thermodynamic characteristics may be obtain from entropy-like Lyapunov function for replicator systems.
Keywords: pairwise interactions, Lyapunov functions, entropy, thermodynamic characteristics.

Signs of stability for aquatic ecosystems
in mathematical models

Complexes of mathematical models are applied to studying of aquatic ecosystems. The different models for the same object allow to use available information more effectively. The data about functioning of ecosystems are received often from different sources. These data have different characteristics. The efficient use of data may be made in a complex of the coordinated models. Modelling signs of the stability for aquatic ecosystems are received.
Keywords: mathematical model, system of the differential equations, stability, aquatic ecosystem.

The stability of ecosystem at different levels
of complexity of models

The paper presents several models of the same ecosystem, differing degrees of detail description. We compared the behavior of the system in different variants of the aggregation of its components. The stability of equilibrium solutions of models has been investigated. A comparison of aggregated models with respect to their proximity to the original model and the degree of their stability has been carried out. The system was considered in two ways: as a closed object and taking into account external relations.
Keywords: mathematic modeling, marine ecosystem, equilibrium, stability.

Interregional inequalities in Russia
and development's prospects of Eastern regions
I.P.Glazyrina, I.A.Zabelina, E.A.Klevakina

The focus of this paper is the estimation of inequalities between regions within Russian Federation. We use modified conventional measures of inequality (Gini coefficient, Atkinson index) for evaluation of inequality in distribution of monetary income and environmental pressure (2000--2008). We also estimate spatial autocorrelation within Russian regions.
Keywords: Interregional inequalities, economic development, environmental pressure, the Gini coefficient, the Atkinson index.

The analysis of stability of regional development
on the basis of models of ekologo-economic convergence
L.G.Melnik, A.V.Kubatko

Work it is carried out modeling research it is simulated interrelations between a level of pollution and incomes per capita. The received results specify that in the near future under condition of increase in a level of incomes per capita and overcoming of tendencies ecological divergence, improvement of quality of air pool of Ukraine is possible.
Keywords: stability of regional development, models of ecology-economy convergence, "an ecological curve of the Smith, critical values of incomes.

Demographic potential of Russia and its sustainable
development in the competitive world
T. M.Smirnova, V.N.Krutko

In order to assess the competitiveness of country-regionRussia in the demographic aspect dynamics of demographic indicators and human development in Russia were compared with world trends. A new method is presented for comparative analysis of mortality in populations with regard to age-specific mortality rates. The results of the analysis conducted may be used to determine the goals and assess the efficiency of population policies.
Keywords: population size, mortality, human development, Russia.

Mass media influence upon health as destabilization
or sustainable development factor

Literature survey shows that mass media influence upon the health is strongly negative. Effect appears in epidemic psychosomatic disorders, suicides and violence, birth rate reduction, ethnic conflicts. Special emphasis is made onto advertising. Advertising is proposed to be replaced with particular issues of special format and all mass media are proposed to be of special regulated format according to science-based standards.
Keywords: mass media, health, sustainable development, advertising, standards.

A Problems of Naturally-resource Potential Safety: Analyses
of Organizational and Economic Instruments Effectively

On a basis of a system analyses identified and characterized the main ecological, economic and social factors, which forming tendencies and features of effectively state policy for solving naturally-resource potential are given. The priority tasks of ecological policy for prevent ecological conflicts on regional and international levels are identified.
Keywords: instrument, policy, instrumentarij, politika, naturally-resource potential p, ecological conflict, factor.

About approaches of the system analysis in a problem
of steady development Local sites of biosphere
V.N.Glushkov, D.A.Sarancha

The complex system approach of ecological and biological objects modelling is offered. It based on a full set of operations -- from an object choice substantiation, construction of an interconnected models set of different detailing degree to a hypotheses formulation about leading mechanisms of the investigated phenomenon. The given approach was used for models set construction to describe tundra populations and communities. Computer use features, methods of models filling by the information (in particular with the help of expert estimations) and questions of models adequacy are discussed.
Keywords: simulation, discrete mapping, biophysics, ecology, system dynamics.

Permafrost dynamics modeling for deploying development projects

A geo-cryological model is introduced that was designed for the integrated geo-ecological forecasting of regional level ecosystem dynamics covering up to 50 years. Systems and regression analysis as well as simulation modeling tools have been applied. The findings presented can be used to deal with rational environmental management issues, EIA of large development projects.
Keywords: geo-ecological forecasting, simulation modeling, rational environmental management.

The morphological analysis and synthesis of ecological and economic
solutions at the natural-anthropogenous systems designing
V.V.Mikhaylov, A.A.Tomilov, V.M.Umyvakin, V.B.Vlasov, Ya.A.Fedorova

Procedures of structurally-parametrical optimization of natural-anthropogenous systems at an ecological substantiation of investments into a steady development of territories are considered. The computer method of the morphological LP-poisk based on the interconnecting of morphological analysis, the LP-poisk and construction of non-numeric aggregative estimates of quality of complicated systems structure variants is offered.
Keywords: morphological analysis and synthesis, natural-anthropogenous systems.

About the editor
Popkov Yurij Solomonovich
Akademik RAN, doktor tekhnicheskikh nauk, professor, zasluzhennij deyatel' nauki RF. Glavnij nauchnij sotrudnik Instituta sistemnogo analiza FITs IU RAN, glavnij nauchnij sotrudnik Instituta problem upravleniya RAN, zaveduyuschij kafedroj "Sistemnie issledovaniya" Moskovskogo fiziko-tekhnicheskogo instituta (MFTI), professor kafedri "Nelinejnie dinamicheskie sistemi" fakul'teta vichislitel'noj matematiki i kibernetiki Moskovskogo gosudarstvennogo universiteta imeni M. V. Lomonosova. Avtor bolee 240 nauchnikh trudov, v tom chisle 15 monografij. Oblast' nauchnikh interesov — stokhasticheskie dinamicheskie sistemi, optimizatsiya, mashinnoe obuchenie, makrosistemnoe modelirovanie.