Коротаев А.В., Исаев Л.М., Шишкина А.Р. (Ред.). АРАБСКИЙ МИР ПОСЛЕ АРАБСКОЙ ВЕСНЫ.
Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков. Вып.4. Изд. 4, стереотип.

Оглавление

Summary

System Monitoring of Global and Regional Risks started as a project in 2007 in the framework of the Center for Civilizational and Regional Studies (CCRS) of the Institute for African Studies. The aim of the project is to analyze and forecast trends and risks for the world and particular civilizational macro-regions and the development of recommendations for managing risks and optimizing scenarios of global and regional progress.

The third bulletin of Systemic Risks’ Monitoring (System Monitoring of Global and Regional Risks: Arab Spring 2011 [Коротаев, Зинькина, Ходунов 2012]) focused on the Near and Middle East, and the Arab Spring events, in particular. The authors considered them as a typical example of the previously described phenomenon labeled as a “trap at the escape from the trap” (Korotayev et al. 2011; Korotayev, Zinkina 2011). This phenomenon has been suggested as a possible major source of sociopolitical destabilization in the periphery of the modern World System At the same time, the Monitoring also presents some alternative approaches to the study of the Arab Spring.

System Monitoring of Global and Regional Risks: the Arab world after the Arab Spring is an attempt to systematize analytical information on all the Arab Spring countries, from Bahrain to Mauritania. The Monitoring has collected data on the preconditions, main actors and consequences of the social and political turmoil in the Middle East and North Africa.

Social and political upheavals of 2011 which became widely known as the “Arab Spring” affected almost all the Arab countries. They had a significant impact on the reformatting of the spectrum of further political development, or altogether radically changed the existing political systems in the region. In general, events that engulfed the Arab world in 2011 are a rather rare phenomenon, which have been called in the literature “a wave of revolutions”. Similar phenomena were observed in the mid 19^th century in the period of so-called “Spring of Nations”, or in the late 1980s during the collapse of the Communist Bloc.

First of all, we should point out states where the “revolution wave” led to a change of political regimes – such as regimes of Ben Ali in Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak, in Egypt and Muammar al-Qaddafi in Libya.

In these countries a decisive role was played by the presence of intra-elite conflicts that were observed in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya. As for Tunisia (Chapter XVII), there was a confrontation between army and secret services on which Ben Ali relied, and the number of whose personnel during his reign exceeded size of the army personnel almost four times. This, in turn, disrupted traditional for the Arab world balance of power and distanced army from the government. This may explain such a rapid repudiation of the president and the military's refusal to support him. Unrest in Tunisia triggered the mass protests that engulfed almost the entire Arab world.

In the case of Egypt (Chapter III) there was also a clearly visible conflict between military elite and economic elite (that was grouping around President Mubarak’s son Gamal), which, in turn, led to intensification of conflicts between Egyptian generals and Gamal Mubarak’s associates (most of them were Ministers or deputies in the Arab Republic of Egypt). Egyptian protesters’ slogans clearly showed that the main reason for the explosion of discontent with the regime of President Mubarak was political, but not social. The Egyptian revolution was originally liberal-democratic and the protests were initiated by young representatives of the middle class which was rapidly gaining strength in recent years.

The Libyan scenario (Chapter IX) is not an exception either. First of all, Libya had an inter-tribal conflict, especially between the tribes of Tripolitania and Cyrenaica. Muammar al-Qaddafi’s rule displeased tribes of Cyrenaica who believed that they were deprived of adequate political participation possibilities, especially taking into account the fact that the location of major oil fields in Libya is in the eastern part of the country. On the other hand, Libya experienced unprecedented emergency measures on the part of the UN Security Council and the Arab League which facilitated an open military intervention by NATO into the Libyan conflict and the subsequent complete destabilization of the situation in the former Jamahiriya.

It should be noted that, in contrast with the above mentioned states, in the case of Syria and Bahrain there is no basis for serious intra-elite conflict, which has been confirmed by the Arab Spring. Throughout 2011 year the ruling Syrian regime (Chapter XV) demonstrated a high degree of consolidation, as well as support from the internal (“systemic”) Syrian opposition organizations, army and diplomatic corps.

The protracted nature of Syrian conflict is determined primarily by the presence of external factors, as well as a high degree of consolidation of society against foreign intervention threats. The escalation of terrorist activities in the country and continuing tense foreign policy situation can lead to a full-scale civil war.

In the case of Bahrain (Chapter II) we also have no reasons to talk about the split among the top elites, because the entire political elite consists exclusively of members of the ruling al-Khalifa house. Thereby, there was a confrontation between the Sunni minority in power and the Shiite majority incapable of political participation.

The events in Yemen (Chapter VI) developed according to quite an unusual scenario, primarily because of the tribal elements of Yemeni society. In this country one could observe a stalemate in which the regime was unable to suppress the activity of protesters, and the latter failed to overthrow the regime: thus, the sons of Ali Abdullah Saleh still occupy key positions in the state.

Another group of Arab Republics influenced by the Arab Spring (Lebanon, Algeria, Iraq, Sudan, Mauritania and the Palestinian Autonomy) developed a sort of “immunity” toward this wave of sociopolitical destabilization. In those countries protests were not so extensive, they broke out from time to time, quickly faded away and led only to “cosmetic” reforms of their political systems.

The main demands of the protesters in Lebanon (Chapter VIII) were political. They were connected with the conflict between Hezbollah and the UN Special Tribunal for Lebanon (investigating the assassination of the former Prime Minister), with the need to disarm Hezbollah, and as well with the need for radical political reforms related to the transition from the rather “archaic” Lebanese confessional political system to a more “modern” one.

A similar situation was observed in Algeria (Chapter I), with the only significant difference being that the social and political turmoil there was caused first of all by socio-economic factors. In this case, they were provoked by rising food prices (especially oil, sugar and flour) in the country at the beginning of January 2011 (caused finally by the second global wave of agflation). A bloody civil war in Algeria ended just a few years ago. It affected almost every Algerian family and is still fresh in the memories of people. This has contributed to the “burning-out of combustible materials” of protest activity in this country. President Abdelaziz Bouteflika turned out to be less vulnerable than the heads of other Arab republics, since he has no children, and, respectively, no possibility to make them his successors in Algeria. In addition, the relative financial, economic and migration closedness of Algeria also played an important role in maintaining social and political stability in the country.

As regards Iraq (Chapter V), sociopolitical protests that emerged there as a reaction to the events in Tunisia and Egypt did not lead either to a major transformation of the country’s political system. Obviously, in today's realities of political and economic development of Iraq the main themes of discontent were related to the infrastructure development, security system, and high level of corruption. However, a risk of country’s involvement into a large-scale Middle Eastern war still remains, as Iraq suffers directly from the conflict in Syria.

Sudan was touched by the social and political upheavals only tangentially, largely due to the question of South Sudan independence being long time on the agenda. In this regard the factor of Islamist political participation is important: Islam in Sudan is not taken out of politics and has a serious impact on the current President Omar al-Bashir’s policy. Most likely, in Sudan, as it has been many times before, we should expect the next democratic revolution, in which the traditional parties will come to power again.

Palestine (Chapter XIII) is among the countries where the protests were insignificant and did not have a serious impact on the political situation. During their protests Palestinians demanded resolution of the conflict with Israel, reconciliation between Fatah and Hamas, and the assertion of Palestine independence.

Mauritania (Chapter X) was also partially affected by the events of Arab Spring mostly due to its being in the periphery of the Arab World, and because of its rather weakly modernized sociopolitical and economic system. On the one hand, the events in neighboring Morocco produced a significant impetus to the development of protest movement in Mauritania; on the other hand, there was an apparent lack of attention from the international media together with weak expansion of the Internet in the country.

In comparison with republican regimes, monarchies displayed a high level of firmness in the social and political upheavals of 2011. A particular attention should be paid to the constitutional monarchies – such as Jordan and Morocco. However, the degree of their strength is largely determined by the presence of a sort of “sacred halo” around the both monarchs. In general, protests in monarchical Arab states – Saudi Arabia, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Jordan and Morocco – demonstrated that they were not directed against the ruling regimes. The legitimacy of the monarchies is constitutionally enshrined and based on historical traditions. In recent years, the Arab monarchies consistently implemented political reforms However, they were not sufficient, so the participants of the protest movements insisted on the continuation of political reforms.

The King of Morocco (Chapter XI) and his entourage managed to reform the regime and thus to avoid the explosion of social activity during the Arab Spring. Protesters in 2011 demanded justice; at the same time they were not willing to overthrow the monarch. The fact is that Mohammed VI enjoys the confidence of the general public, and after 12 years of his reign, the Moroccans have not become “tired” of him yet.

In Jordan (Chapter IV) and Bahrain (Chapter II) parliamentary opposition requested the formation of a government based on the results of parliamentary elections and appointment the head of the winning party as a Prime Minister Unrest in the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan was the result of contradictory and inconsistent policies of King Abdullah II in political and economic sphere.

Stability of monarchies could be explain by the fact that monarch has more opportunities for concessions to the opposition in the critical situation, because if one or another Arab monarch agrees to limit his powers, he still remains a central part of the political system, while the president in this case undergoes the risk of a total loss of power.

As for Bahrain, with a high degree of politicization of its society, opposition demonstrations were well-organized and extensive there. Bahraini opposition has long experience of confrontation with the government, which is reflected in the specifics of the situation in this country. The authorities were taking steps to partially meet the demands of the opposition, but at the same time, opposition from time to time held protests, insisting on full satisfaction of its demands In spite of the various obstacles to the change of the political system, the described above trends indicate its serious transformation and even a possible transition to a constitutional monarchy.

In Kuwait (Chapter VII) opposition, supported by mass demonstrations of young people, demanded and obtained the resignation of Prime Minister who was accused of corruption. Protests in Kuwait did not aim to overthrow the existing order.

In Oman (Chapter XII) the basic demands of opposition were of economic nature, and the opposition tended to try to cooperatt with the Sultan. Protests in Oman started under the influence of events in other Arab countries – such as Tunisia, Egypt, Libya and neighboring Bahrain However, in the Sultanate any well-organized opposition for the time being does not exist, therefore the authorities were able to take control over the events in a relatively fast an effective way.

Saudi Arabia (Chapter XIV) experienced a multifaceted impact of the protest movements in the Arab region. These events in 2011 forced the Saudi leadership to act to preserve the country's role in the regional arena Saudi monarch announced the establishment of a conditional dialogue and cooperation between the government and the opposition “liberals”, generally ignoring their demands.

At the same time, it should be noted that not all the Arab states were covered by the protests. Qatar and the United Arab Emirates mostly avoided significant shocks related to mass protests[1]. Those Gulf monarchies have not reached a sufficiently high level of politicization of their population; political opposition has not emerged yet; in addition, they do not have experience of parliamentary activities. They have not established any elected parliaments (first elections in Qatar are to be held in 2013). In addition, in those states power tightly controls all manifestations of discontent, using both punitive sanctions and measures of economic and social nature (let alone the opportunities that the very high levels of per capita GDP provide for authorities to prevent possible protests through the increase in the population well-being).

In this way, according to the classification of political systems in developing countries proposed by Jean Blondel (1981), authoritarian regimes in the Arab world could be divided into conservative (monarchist) and progressive (Republican) Demands for democratic change have acquired different forms in states with monarchic and republican systems. In monarchies they tended to be reduced to the demands of the resignation of government, reforms of electoral system, limitation of the role of monarchs in the formation of the executive power, but they did not affect the essence of the monarchy. In republics the demands for democratization tended to lead not only to unrest, but also to the violent regime change.

Cведения об авторах

Беляков Владимир Владимирович, доктор исторических наук, ведущий научный сотрудник Института востоковедения РАН Автор более 100 научных работ, том числе монографий Российский некрополь в Египте (М.: ИСАА МГУ, 2001), "К берегам священным Нила…" Русские в Египте (М.: ИСАА МГУ и ИВ РАН, 2003), Гуманитарный связи России с Египтом (конец XIX – середина XX века). Взаимные миграции и межкультурное взаимодействие (Саарбрюккен: Lambert Academic Publishing, 2011), а также научно-популярных книг Сокровища Синая (М.: Вече, 2004), Русский Египет (М.: Вече, 2008) и Эль-Аламейн, или Русские солдаты в Северной Африке. 1940-1945 (М.: Русский путь, 2010). Область научных интересов: новейшая история и современное положение Египта, русско-египетские связи.

Демченко Александр Владимирович, кандидат исторических наук, научный сотрудник Центра арабских и исламских исследований Института востоковедения РАН. Автор монографии Палестинская проблема в политике Иордании: 1947-1967 гг. (М.: URSS, 2009). Область научных интересов: этнополитические конфликты на Ближнем Востоке, палестинская проблема, история Иордании.

Долгов Борис Васильевич, кандидат исторических наук, старший научный сотрудник Института востоковедения РАН. Автор более 100 научных работ по социально-политической и исторической проблематике Арабского Востока и арабо-мусульманской диаспоры во Франции, в том числе, монографии Исламистский вызов и алжирское общество (1970-2004 гг.) (М.: Институт изучения Израиля и Ближнего Востока, Институт востоковедения РАН, 2004). Область научных интересов: современные социально-политические процессы в арабо-мусульманском мире и мусульманских диаспорах в Западной Европе. Демократия и политический ислам.

Исаев Леонид Маркович, старший преподаватель кафедры всеобщей и отечественной истории и общей политологии Национального исследовательского университета "Высшая школа экономики". Автор более 30 научных трудов, в том числе монографий: Египетская смута XXI века (М.: Либроком, 2012, в соавторстве с А. Р. Шишкиной), Сирия и Йемен: неоконченные революции (М.: Либроком, 2012, в соавторстве с А. Р. Шишкиной) Область научных интересов: политические системы, политический процесс и политическая культура в арабских странах, Лига арабских государств, исламская политическая философия.

Коротаев Андрей Витальевич, доктор философии (Ph.D.), доктор исторических наук, профессор, главный научный сотрудник Института востоковедения РАН, заведующий кафедрой современного Вос­тока Российского государственного гуманитарного университета, ведущий на­учный сотрудник Центра цивилизационных и региональных исследований Института Африки, координатор Проекта «Комплексный системный анализ и моделирование мировой динамики» Программы фундаментальных исследований Президиума РАН "Экономика и социология знания". Автор более 350 научных трудов, включая такие монографии, как Ancient Yemen (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 1995), Pre-Islamic Yemen (Wiesbaden: Harrassowitz, 1996), Социальная эволюция (М.: Восточная литература, 2003), Возникновение ислама (М.: ОГИ, 2007, совместно с В. В. Клименко и Д. Б. Прусаковым), Законы истории. Математическое моделирование развития Мир-Системы. Демография. Экономика. Культура (М.: URSS , 2007, совместно с А. С. Малковым и Д. А. Халтуриной), Социальная макроэволюция Генезис и трансформации Мир-Системы (М.: URSS, 2008, совместно с Л. Е. Грининым) и Законы истории. Математическое моделирование и прогнозирование мирового и регионального развития (изд. 3-е, испр. и доп. М.: ЛКИ/URSS, 2010, в соавторстве).

Косач Григорий Григорьевич, профессор кафедры современного Востока Российского государственного гуманитарного университета, эксперт Института Ближнего Востока (г. Москва). Автор более 100 научных трудов, включая такие монографий, как Красный флаг над Ближним Востоком? Компартии Египта, Палестины, Сирии и Ливана в 20-30-е годы (М.: Институт стран Азии и Африки при МГУ, 2001), Внешняя политика Саудовской Аравии. Приоритеты, направления, процесс принятия решения (М.: Институт изучения Израиля и Ближнего Востока. 2003, в соавторстве), Татаввур ас-сияса аль-хариджийя ас-саудийя мин таасис ад-дауля иля бидая аль-исляхат (Эволюция саудовской внешней политики: от создания государства до начала процесса реформ) (Эр-Рияд: Институт дипломатических исследований МИД Королевства Саудовская Аравия. 2005, в соавторстве), Саудовская Аравия: внутриполитические процессы "этапа реформ" (конец 1990 – 2006 г.) (М.: Институт Ближнего Востока. 2007), Саудовский дипломатический корпус: этапы эволюции и источники формирования (М.: Институт Ближнего Востока, 2008), Коммунисты Ближнего Востока в СССР. 1920-1930-е годы (М.: РГГУ, 2009), Приоритеты "класса" и приоритеты нации: палестинские коммунисты 1920-1930-х гг. (Казань: Intelpress+, 2011).

Мелкумян Елена Суреновна, профессор кафедры современного Востока Российского государственного гуманитарного университета, ведущий научный сотрудник Института востоковедения РАН, эксперт Института Ближнего Востока (г. Москва) Автор более 100 научных трудов, включая такие монографии, как Кувейт в 60-80-е годы Социально-политические процессы и внешняя политика (М.: Наука, 1989), Внешняя политика Саудовской Аравии Приоритеты, направления, процесс принятия решения (М.: Институт изучения Израиля и Ближнего Востока, 2003, в соавторстве), Gulf Cooperation Council Relations with Russia (Dubai: Gulf Research Center, 2005), Регион Залива: конфликты, компромиссы, сотрудничество (М.: Институт востоковедения РАН, Институт Ближнего Востока, 2008), Дирасат фи тарих Аль-Кувейт аль-хадис ва аль-муасыр (Исследования по новой и новейшей истории Кувейта) (Эль-Кувейт, Марказ аль-бухус ва ад-дирасат аль-кувейтийя, 2011), Новейшая история Кувейта (М.: Аспект Пресс, 2011).

Наоваф Ибрахим, президент филиала Национального cоюза сирийских студентов в России и странах СНГ, старший редактор службы радиовещания в арабских странах РГРК "Голос России", руководитель первой программы FM-вещания на арабские страны радиостанции "Голос России". Автор, редактор и ведущий передачи "От сердца к сердцу". Автор более 20 научных статей на русском и арабском языках. Сфера научных интересов: Межкультурное развитие, глобализация, диалог культур, Арабская весна, мировая политика, социо-культурное развитие.

Поляков Константин Иванович, кандидат исторических наук, независимый эксперт. Автор 11 монографий, в том числе: Исламский фундаментализм в Судане. (М.: ИИИиБВ, 2000); Палестинское движение сопротивления и формирование палестинской государственности (80–90-е гг.). (М.: ИВ РАН, 2001, в соавторстве); Арабский Восток и Россия: проблема исламского фундаментализма. (М.: Эдиториал УРСС, 2001); История Судана – ХХ век. (М.: ИВ РАН, 2005); Международный терроризм: борьба за геополитическое господство. (М.: РАГС, 2005, в соавторстве); а также ряда других работ, посвященных исследованию проблем противодействия терроризму и религиозному экстремизму.

Сигалев Михаил Владимирович, независимый исследователь. Сфера основных научных интересов: проблемы политического развития стран Южной Азии, Ближнего и Среднего Востока, вопросы региональной безопасности.

Сухов Николай Вадимович, начальник отдела стран Азии и Африки Федерального агентства по делам Содружества Независимых Государств, соотечественников, проживающих за рубежом, и по международному гуманитарному сотрудничеству (Россотрудничество). Автор целого ряда научных трудов по Арабскому Востоку. Область научных интересов: русскоязычная община в арабских странах, миграции в Северной Африке и её гендерные аспекты, особенности формирования  гражданского общества в Исламском мире, возможности интеграции традиционных и религиозных институтов в  гражданское общество мусульманских стран, кланово-племенные и общинные взаимосвязи и структуры самоуправления, их значение и влияние, проблемы взаимодействия местной и центральной властей.

Труевцев Константин Михайлович, доцент кафедры общей политологии Национального исследовательского университета "Высшая школа экономики". Автор более 100 научных трудов, включая монографии Политическая система современной России (М.: Изд. дом. ВШЭ, 2004), Год 2011 – новая демократическая волна? (М.: Изд. дом. ВШЭ, 2011) Область научных интересов: теория политических систем, политическая система России и других постсоветских стран, их место в типологии мировых политических систем, политические системы арабских стран, глобализация как мировой политический процесс, ее воздействие на структуру миропорядка и политические структуры различных обществ, глобализация и исламский мир, авторитаризм как тип политической системы и политического режима, его современное состояние, Арабская весна, ее итоги и результаты.

Шишкина Алиса Романовна, окончила отделение культурологии факультета философии Национального исследовательского университета "Высшая школа экономики" Автор более 10 научных трудов, в том числе монографий: Египетская смута XXI века (М.: Либроком, 2012, в соавторстве с Л. М. Исаевым), Сирия и Йемен: неоконченные революции (М.: Либроком, 2012, в соавторстве с Л. М. Исаевым). Область научных интересов: права человека, демократический транзит, политические процессы в современном мире, социо-культурное развитие.

О редакторах

Коротаев Андрей Витальевич

Доктор философии (Ph.D.), доктор исторических наук, профессор, заведующий лабораторией мониторинга рисков социально-политической дестабилизации Национального исследовательского университета «Высшая школа экономики», главный научный сотрудник Центра цивилизационных и региональных исследований Института Африки, ведущий научный сотрудник Института востоковедения РАН и Международной лаборатории демографии и человеческого капитала РАНХиГС, профессор факультета глобальных процессов МГУ. Автор более 700 научных трудов.

Исаев Леонид Маркович

Старший преподаватель общей политологии Национального исследовательского университета «Высшей школы экономики», научный сотрудник Лаборатории мониторинга рисков социально-политической дестабилизации НИУ ВШЭ и Центра цивилизационных и региональных исследований Института Африки РАН. Окончил факультет прикладной политологии Государственного университета — Высшей школы экономики и Каирский университет. Проходил стажировку в штаб-квартире Лиги арабских государств в Каире. Автор более 60 научных трудов, включая монографии «Египетская смута XXI века» (М.: URSS; в соавт. с А. Р. Шишкиной), «Сирия и Йемен: неоконченные революции» (М.: URSS; в соавт. с А. Р. Шишкиной), «Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков: Арабский мир после Арабской весны» (М.: URSS; в соавт. с А. В. Коротаевым и А. Р. Шишкиной), «Системный мониторинг глобальных и региональных рисков. Центральная Азия: новые вызовы» (М.: URSS; в соавт. с Б. А. Акаевой, А. В. Коротаевым и А. Р. Шишкиной).

Шишкина Алиса Романовна

Кандидат политических наук, старший научный сотрудник лаборатории мониторинга рисков социально-политической дестабилизации НИУ ВШЭ. Сфера научных интересов — риски нестабильности, политическая культура, коммуникативистика. Автор более 40 научных публикаций на русском и английском языке, в том числе в журналах, индексируемых Scopus и Web of Science.