Сборник содержит статьи ученых ИСА РАН и ведущих ученых других российских научных организаций, относящиеся к актуальной проблематике устойчивого развития человеческого общества в современной биосфере. В статьях получили отражение вопросы, связанные с современными тенденциями глобальных и региональных изменений в состоянии окружающей человека среды, со становлением и развитием системной методологии исследований взаимодействия природы и общества, с формулировкой целевых ориентаций и развитием модельного инструментария исследований. Представленные в сборнике материалы и результаты рассматривались и обсуждались на научных семинарах ИСА РАН, всероссийских школах-семинарах и научных конференциях. Объединение представляемых работ в сборнике представляется важным для формирования системного понимания проблематики устойчивого развития.
The general contents of the sustainable development problem
The analysis of existing problems of modelling research of an
actual problem of the social and economic sustainable
development is presented. Possible directions of perfection of
the general system methodology of modelling of objects of modern
biosphere are offered.
Keywords: the system and macrosystem approaches, the open
nonequilibrium systems, physical laws of preservation.
Principles of evolutionary continuity in general systems methodology of sustainable development researches
The Modern biosphere is a product of a material world of our
planet, occurrence of the structures capable to
self-reproduction, possessing the mechanisms providing
a survival, capable to improve these mechanisms. Most the general
for definition of systems of objects of modern biosphere is
their representation as the open no equilibrium systems .
Functions of such systems is maintenance of a no equilibrium
condition with use of energy of an environment. In this
connection models of self-organizing of the open no equilibrium
systems -- a possible direction of synthesis of the general
system methodology of researches of sustainable development.
Keywords: the open nonequilibrium systems,
self-organizing, adaptation, evolution, a competition,
selection, sustainable development.
The thermodynamic characteristics of the replicatorequations with nonlinear pairwise interactions
In this report we summarize the results in the application of
Direct Lyapunov method to the generalized replicator systems
with weighted sum of nonlinear pairwise interactions. These
complex equations to define the properties of a system composed
of objects that are coupled via nonlinear pairwise interactions.
It is shown that there are exist two types of thermodynamic
Lyapunov functions: fitness-like and entropy-like. As example
it'll be establish that practically all known thermodynamic
characteristics may be obtain from entropy-like Lyapunov
function for replicator systems.
Keywords: pairwise interactions, Lyapunov functions,
entropy, thermodynamic characteristics.
Signs of stability for aquatic ecosystems in mathematical models
Complexes of mathematical models are applied to studying of
aquatic ecosystems. The different models for the same object
allow to use available information more effectively. The data
about functioning of ecosystems are received often from
different sources. These data have different characteristics.
The efficient use of data may be made in a complex of the
coordinated models. Modelling signs of the stability for aquatic
ecosystems are received.
Keywords: mathematical model, system of the differential
equations, stability, aquatic ecosystem.
The stability of ecosystem at different levels of complexity of models
The paper presents several models of the same ecosystem,
differing degrees of detail description. We compared the
behavior of the system in different variants of the aggregation
of its components. The stability of equilibrium solutions of
models has been investigated. A comparison of aggregated models
with respect to their proximity to the original model and the
degree of their stability has been carried out. The system was
considered in two ways: as a closed object and taking into
account external relations.
Keywords: mathematic modeling, marine ecosystem,
Interregional inequalities in Russia and development's prospects of Eastern regions
I.P.Glazyrina, I.A.Zabelina, E.A.Klevakina
The focus of this paper is the estimation of inequalities
between regions within Russian Federation. We
use modified conventional measures of inequality (Gini
coefficient, Atkinson index) for evaluation of inequality in
distribution of monetary income and environmental pressure
(2000--2008). We also estimate spatial autocorrelation within
Keywords: Interregional inequalities, economic
development, environmental pressure, the Gini coefficient, the
The analysis of stability of regional development on the basis of models of эколого-economic convergence
Work it is carried out modeling research it is simulated
interrelations between a level of pollution and incomes per
capita. The received results specify that in the near future
under condition of increase in a level of incomes per capita and
overcoming of tendencies ecological divergence, improvement of
quality of air pool of Ukraine is possible.
Keywords: stability of regional development, models of
ecology-economy convergence, "an ecological curve of the Smith,
critical values of incomes.
Demographic potential of Russia and its sustainable development in the competitive world
T. M.Smirnova, V.N.Krutko
In order to assess the competitiveness of country-regionRussia
in the demographic aspect dynamics of demographic indicators and
human development in Russia were compared
with world trends. A new method is presented for comparative
analysis of mortality in populations with regard to age-specific
mortality rates. The results of the analysis conducted may be
used to determine the goals and assess the efficiency of
Keywords: population size, mortality, human development, Russia.
Mass media influence upon health as destabilization or sustainable development factor
Literature survey shows that mass media influence upon the
health is strongly negative. Effect appears in epidemic
psychosomatic disorders, suicides and violence, birth rate
reduction, ethnic conflicts. Special emphasis is made onto
advertising. Advertising is proposed to be replaced with
particular issues of special format and all mass media are
proposed to be of special regulated format according to
Keywords: mass media, health, sustainable development,
A Problems of Naturally-resource Potential Safety: Analyses of Organizational and Economic Instruments Effectively
On a basis of a system analyses identified and characterized the
main ecological, economic and social factors, which forming
tendencies and features of effectively state policy for solving
naturally-resource potential are given. The priority tasks of
ecological policy for prevent ecological conflicts on regional
and international levels are identified.
Keywords: instrument, policy, инструментарий, политика,
naturally-resource potential п, ecological conflict, factor.
About approaches of the system analysis in a problem of steady development Local sites of biosphere
The complex system approach of ecological and biological objects
modelling is offered. It based on a full set of operations -- from an
object choice substantiation, construction of an
interconnected models set of different detailing degree to
a hypotheses formulation about leading mechanisms of the
investigated phenomenon. The given approach was used for models
set construction to describe tundra populations and communities.
Computer use features, methods of models filling by the
information (in particular with the help of expert estimations)
and questions of models adequacy are discussed.
Keywords: simulation, discrete mapping, biophysics,
ecology, system dynamics.
Permafrost dynamics modeling for deploying development projects
A geo-cryological model is introduced that was designed for the
integrated geo-ecological forecasting of regional level
ecosystem dynamics covering up to 50 years. Systems and
regression analysis as well as simulation modeling tools have
been applied. The findings presented can be used to deal with
rational environmental management issues, EIA of large
Keywords: geo-ecological forecasting, simulation modeling,
rational environmental management.
The morphological analysis and synthesis of ecological and economic solutions at the natural-anthropogenous systems designing
V.V.Mikhaylov, A.A.Tomilov, V.M.Umyvakin, V.B.Vlasov, Ya.A.Fedorova
Procedures of structurally-parametrical optimization of natural-anthropogenous
systems at an ecological substantiation of investments into a steady development of territories are
considered. The computer method of the morphological LP-poisk based on the interconnecting of morphological analysis, the
LP-poisk and construction of non-numeric aggregative estimates of quality
of complicated systems structure variants is offered.
Keywords: morphological analysis and synthesis, natural-anthropogenous systems.